Misconceptions Abound on Effects of Rate Hikes on Gold; Gold Price Forecast 2017 Points Higher
The interest rate tightening cycle is upon us.
The market expects at least three additional 25-basis-point rate hikes leading into 2018.
Common group-think may reason now is a good time to sell gold.
But that's not necessarily the case.
Nor is following the crowd a reliable way to make money.
Although gold prices today have been range-bound for five years, a resolution is coming sooner
rather than later.
Our gold price forecast 2017 reflects the fact that while rising rates aren't necessarily
bullish, stronger buy-side catalysts should overcome the "opportunity risk" of owning
gold.
So what exactly do we mean by the "opportunity risk" of owning gold?
Simply put, bonds and dividend-paying stocks also pay higher rates when the Fed hikes interest
rates, so the "cost" of owning gold gets more acute.
Of course, since gold has no yield, logic states it's more expensive to hold gold
during these periods.
But is the logic correct?
Or is this financial fake news?
Well, it's a little bit of both.
In theory, the logic is sound.
But the market doesn't always react that way.
That's because investors invest on expectations more than anything else.
By the time the Federal Reserve acts, rate hikes are priced in.
The market is forward-looking.
For instance, a July 2015 HSBC study found that gold prices actually increased during
the past four Fed hiking cycles.
"History shows that gold prices also fall leading into a rate hike and generally rise,
though sometimes with a lag, after the first rate hike…"
The gold price chart below gives a visual example of the price of gold during past rate
hike cycles.
This chart shows how gold reacted during the 2004 tightening cycle, in response to a robust
economy post-Tech Bubble.
Effects of Increased Rates on Gold Prices
So far, the playbook has stayed true to form.
Gold prices per ounce fell precipitously before the Fed's first rate hike, only to increase
afterwards.
Gold was around $1,800/ounce in fall 2012, only to drop to $1,060/ounce by the time the
Federal Reserve started raising rates in December 2015 (by 25 basis points).
That first rate hike coincided exactly with the secular low in prices.
The same thing occurred after the Fed's second rate hike in December 2016.
Gold prices were mired at 10-month lows ($1,135/ounce) only to rebound north of $1,250/ounce in 1.5
months after the second hike.
History seems to be repeating itself, and it's telling us that rate hikes aren't
the driving factor in price.
What is the driving factor then?
Most likely, gold is being purchased on dips as a hedge against a severe stock market decline
and future monetary debasement—a fourth round of quantitative easing (QE), perhaps?
Astute investors are aware of how rate hikes could torpedo the economy by making the cost
of borrowing prohibitively high.
Consumers and businesses are very price-sensitive and oversaturated with debt as is.
If the economy goes into recession, surely one of the highest valuation markets ever
will crash, leading investors into the comforting arms of gold.
Remember, the American economy is all about credit growth.
Once the inevitable slowdown in commercial borrowing happens, the business cycle ends.
It's really that simple.
This is precariously close at hand.
Thus, our gold price forecast 2017 calls for higher prices, veering towards $1,500 per
ounce by the time the interest rate hike cycle winds down.
That will most likely be sometime in 2018 or 2019, but gold purchasing on the dips starting
in 2017 could be your friend.
If the stock market craters and causes a massive new debt stimulus and/or the Fed reverses
course on reducing its balance sheet and starts expanding it again, all bets are off.
Gold prices have the potential to go much higher, especially in conjunction with a weaker
dollar.
We believe the market is on the cusp of rediscovering "value investing" again.
Cheap assets will come back in vogue; expensive ones will wilt.
Gold and silver belong in the former camp.
Not only will they protect your portfolio against calamity like they always have, they
may become stellar capital-appreciating stars when paper assets become mired in a sea of
red.
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So ist est Immer | Live guitar and vocal short cover (Shingeki no Kyojin Soundtrack) - Duration: 1:45.
Chairs so close and room so small
You and I talk all the night long
Meager this space but serves us so well
We comrades have stories to tell
And it's always, like that in our evening time
We drink and we sing when our fighting is done
And it's always, so we live under the burnt clouds
We ease our burden and long is the night
Just as no stars can be seen
We all starve for a moonbeam on our town
We must all gather as one
Sing with hope and the fear will be gone
Die Stühle liegen sehr eng
Wir reden die ganze Nacht lang
Dieser niedrige Raum ist nicht schlecht
Wir können uns gut verstehen
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Vanilla prices not so sweet for Valley bakers - Duration: 1:47.
. MOMMY BLOGS ARE HELPING
SPREAD THE MESSAGE.
>>> NEW THIS MORNING SOUR TIMES
FOR THE SWEET BUSINESS.
A BEEN A LIGHT SHORTAGE
CAUSING PROBLEMS IN PLACES LIKE
COOKIE MAKERS, ICE CREAM SHOPS.
WE SHARE HOW A VALLEY BAKERY IS
FEELING THE HIT.
>> AT THIS FAMILY RUN BAKERY
IT'S A LABOR OF LOVE
>> WE THOUGHT IT WOULD BE FUN
TO DO SOMETHING DIFFERENT
OUTSIDE THE BOX.
>> JENNIFER IS ONE OF THE OWNERS
. IF THE PHOENIX SHOP
SPECIALIZING IN BEGIN, GLUTEN-
FREE TREATS WITH A LITTLE BIT
OF SPIKE.
>> THE MOST POPULAR CAKE IS OUR
JACK AND COKE CUPCAKE.
>> EIGHT MONTHS INTO BUSINESS
THEY BEEN DOING WITH A PROBLEM.
THEY SAY THE PRICE OF THE
VANILLA USED IN THE GOODIES HAS
GONE UP 50%.
IT KEE HER KEEPING ONE OF HER
POPULAR CAKES OU.
>> CROP FAILURES DUE TO WEATHER
AND INCREASED DEMAND IS SENDING
THE MARKET INTO A FRENZY.
>> WITH MOM AND POP SHOPS
FEELING HEAT OUT OF THE OVEN.
THEY ARE TRYING TO FOCUS ON
WHAT THEY DO BEST.
>> FOR ME IT'S THE JOY OF
SEEING OTHER PEOPLE EAT OUR
PRODUCTS AND MAKING THEM HAPP
>> THOSE WHO PRODUCE VANILLA IN
MADAGASCAR ARE TEAMING UP WITH
OUTSIDE GROUPS TRYING TO BOOST
PRODUCTION.
THEY ARE WORKING TO PREVENT THE
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[繁中/ENG]2017蘇志燮《軍艦島》showcase採訪cut So Jisub @"Battleship Island" showcase interview - Duration: 7:54.
Please say hi to everyone
Hello
Hi, nice to meet you all
I play Choi Chil-sung, the best fighter in the old capital
A lot of people come today, thanks a lot
Hope you have a good time and get to know more about our film
Thanks
So Jisub ssi, this is your long-awaited comeback to the big screen
It's been a long time since I greet everyone through a film
It's great news for a lot of people
And So Jisub might feel different too
I haven't shot a film for a long time
As an actor, what I felt happiest about during shooting is that
I discovered something new about myself
So I felt very very happy during shooting
When I watched the monitor, I thought that wasn't me
It's another So Jisub
Yes, another So Jisub
Audience would feel great about this new you
I hope so
Please anticipate
Please look forward to it
Thanks
So Jisub ssi, what's the most impressive/memorable scene?
For this particular movie
none of the scenes were easy to make
I'm very grateful we are able to make it through
Actors think shootings were tough
As to Jisub oppa...
Oh, you're calling him oppa
Wow, that drives everyone crazy
It's the first time I hear you calling me oppa
What did you call him then?
I forgot, how did you address me?
- Uncle? - No
No matter what, thank you (for calling me oppa)
How's Jisub oppa?
I like poker tricks
And he showed me a lot of new tricks
- Jisub oppa - Yes?
The action scene in the bath house is impressive, you were greatly praised
There was no protection, only the T-back
it must be very dangerous
Everyone thought so
So we spent 1.5 months practicing before shooting
Thankfully no one got hurt and we accomplished the shoot
That's grateful
It would become the most memorable scene when the film is released
Hope so
Jong-ki and Jung-hyun have completely different choices, how about Jisub? Q. Survival tips on the set?
I'm thinking whose side I should take Q. Survival tips on the set?
I'm thinking whose side I should take For me, I'll first check the route (I need to move around)
Check the route
Then I kinda know how much energy is needed
Seems Jong-ki is the one who differs from all
I'll eat more dinner tonight （*Jong-ki's tip is to eat more）
Who would So Jisub pick?
Haven't checked yet
Let's pick another one
Let me see
Wait
Great question, let me read it
D1-142
OK, D1-142, where are you?
Please stand up
The fan in navy Tee, please stand up
Please look into the camera
Look ahead, yes
You look like you're being chased, no worries, we'll tell you whatever you want
Please stand up
So Jisub, please say hi
Hello
Her name is Choi Yo-jung, Yo-jung
Yo-jung
Please say hi to her in a sweet voice
Hi Yo-jung
（Song Jong-ki）Hyung is sweating
What's your question?
Can she just ask a question?
Give her the mic
Ok, our staff will pass the mic along
He wants to hear the question himself
Thanks our staff for passing the mic
- Yo-jung, do you remember the question you post? - No
Let me give you a hint, one word in the question
- Japanese "Ganji", remember now? - Nah
Was it really you who submit that question?
Ok, I'll read it for you
"How to be so Ganji all the time?"
A question from Yo-jung
Yo-jung, look this side; So Jisub, please answer the fan's question
Now you look full of Ganji
I think people are just brain washed
To think of me as Ganji
Please give us and Yo-jung, who are brain washed
your special gazing, please, 1,2,3
Yo-jung fainted, are you ok?
- I'm fine - Surprised you?
You should look at me right?
Yo-jung, please say something to Jisub
You're so handsome
Thank you
We will send Yo-jung a poster as a gift
How about So Jisub?
I'll pick NO.3
The boy who sings
He's very sincere and lovely
Please welcome NO.3
Please mind your step when you go off stage
What happened?
She said her mom is Jisub's fan
She said to Jisub "My mom is your fan"
And her mom asked that she must tell Jisub this, so bad she can't make it today
Congrat to So Jisub
Now, all-moms-are-your-fan Jisub
Thanks to all the mother fans who cannot attend
Thank you all
BSI will be released on July 26th
Please go watch it and share our passion
Thank you
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【So Cute...】 With Shining Eyes ! Fish cookies 【..But Not That Cute】 [CC Available] | Yuka [Oogui] - Duration: 4:11.
hello its kinoshita yuka
today...
Jan !
Jan ! !
i made fish cookies !
what a cookies !
- You can check the video on my seconde channel "YukaKinoshita 2nd" as well , and thank you - and i made the eyes by the sweets
this a little bit scary !
Ja! let's see the procedure now !
the procedure...
first, we make the ordinary cookies dough !
we put in this bowl the butter by the required quantity
and we mix it until it got the creamy texture !
because it still frozen a little bit, I've heated it a little bit
and now we mix it until it got the creamy texture
sugar !
salt !
and we keep mixing until the color turn to white !
the yolk !
Then we sprinkle the flour
and we mix it slowly and nicely !
and if it got a good consistency...
we shape a little bit
after that cover it with a bag and let it in the refrigerator for about 30 min
and because that a little bit annoying for me, i'm not going to do it
put your favorite size of dough to shape the cookies, on top of cooking paper
and we stretch it
to about 5 mm in thickness
after that, cut it to your favorite shape
and for the eyes i took a small pieces for the eyes
we have here the sweets...
mix it with the flour...
and we make the eyes !
i should choose a different color for the eyes more than this color
and after we done the shaping...
in a 180 degrees oven...
we bake it for about 10 min !
and check the sweets to not burn it
Jan !
we did it !
after the baking , is more clear now
but unfortunately...
The fin is broken
that's so sad !
but it's not a big problem
we made the eyes in simple way, but the result is good
itadakimasu !
itadakimasu ! !
hay ! the fin is broken now...
but let's start eating !
mmmmm !
the cookies, delicious in a simple way
this cookies is really tasty...
i think because of the butter that i used
mmmmmm !
the sweets, so crunchy and delicious
this with the orange flavor, that's why the taste of the orange is strong
and there is a little bit of saltiness taste and that's delicious
i made small cookies by the remaining dough as well
tasty !
i will eat now, the last small fish !
that's amazing, i used the same dough but the color is different
the baking is really difficult job
mmmmm !
it's a grape flavored sweets
i ate the last bite !
i forget to say that
gochisousamadeshita
the fish cookies...
was so fun and delicious
the cookies was like any ordinary cookies
and for the eyes i used the Stained Glass Cookies
but i didn't make it in a cute shape at all
and you can use that to make the cookies in really cute shape
but different from my result !
hay !
and because it was so delcious and really fun...
you don't want to try this as well !?
it will be a lot of fun with your parents
and be careful to bake the eyes part for a long time
be careful in the mixing as well
and as always thanks for watching...
nd if you liked this video please hit the like and sub button
bye bye !
All rights reserved to kinoshita yuka ©2017
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Digital Banking is Fast So You Can Get to the Next Thing - Duration: 0:27.
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[Music]
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WHY so many FILMMAKERS wear a CAP? - Duration: 2:14.
Welcome to Frame Upgrade. You may have seen many film makers like the director
DP or the camera operator where a cap on set. Why? Let's find out.
For some the cap is a mere choice of style but for many others myself included it has a more
practical approach. When filming in a bright location like outdoors it's
really difficult to see the LCD screen while recording. If you block the light
with your hand you lose control over the lens and the camera becomes less stable.
And this is where the cap comes in. Now you have both hands on the camera and
the cap blocks the light. You can also use a magnifying LCD loop which also
gives more stability to the setup. If you have a prosumer or a mirrorless camera
they should have EVFs and loops for those as well. This also applies when viewing
external monitors the monitor should have more brightness and a larger
viewing angle compared to camera's LCD screen but having the monitor in shade
is always a better choice. Some larger productions even set up a tent where the
monitors are located. This isn't only an outdoor problem since the screen might
be difficult to view in a studio where they have a heavy lighting setup.
In big-budget films directors like George Lucas and Steven Spielberg have worn a
blank baseball cap on set. In the industry it's called a director's cap. The reason
why the cap is blank is that it wouldn't conflict with any potential sponsor
deals that film has since many people take a lot of behind-the-scenes footage
on set. Do you wear a cap while filming? If not - you might want to try it out.
See you guys and gals in the next video!
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