David Lincoln: Market Maker to VIX Trader. Plus Marijuana Stocks & Bitcoin Outlook hemp cannabis pot weed cryptocurrency cryptocurrencies crypto cryptos UVXY VXX TVIX XIV SVXY david moadel
David Lincoln and he is a well-known youtuber among the financial community
he's got thousands of followers on YouTube as well as on stock twits he's
well known Twitter Facebook I mean this gentleman is all over the place he is a
former CBOE and that is Chicago Board Options Exchange market maker so he
might be able to and willing to hopefully give us an inside view on what
that's all about as well as being a financial youtuber as I am and we're
also going to talk about the markets and how they stand right now so mr. Lincoln
finally welcome - looking on looking at the markets well thank you very much
David I'm very glad to be here and I want to thank you for your generosity
towards me in the past you've tweeted out a lot of my videos and it's just you
know from starting from nothing to have a person that watches your videos and
leaves a kind word here and there it really really has helped me out in the
past and I have a level of gratitude towards you so thank you very much for
doing that David and you've done the same thing for me so I definitely
appreciate that I've been slowing down on Twitter and
stock twits lately I've done a you can on YouTube you can do analytics and I
found that most of my followers are on YouTube and found me on YouTube so yeah
I've been kind of slowing down on that lately but I may make a comeback you
never know but you've been growing quite rapidly how's your experience been I
mean you went from just having a much smaller number of viewers and you just
exploded in the last six months to a year
how can you account for that and what's it been like well it's it's hard you
know it's hard getting started I've had couple false starts on YouTube I I first
came on there as a gamer like a lot of people do and you know you can't just
show up on YouTube and be like Here I am okay everybody embrace me and I'm
PewDiePie now and a billion people are gonna come after me you know you get up
and the same thing with Twitter you get on Twitter and you tweet something out
and then you realize you don't have any followers and so nobody we tell anything
back and so it's a little bit of a wake up call it's a competitive thing YouTube
and you have to both get a little niche and also get your skills up as you know
there's a lot that goes on behind the scenes to making videos it your
everybody at first you're the editor you're the producer you're the sound guy
and you got to build your skill yeah yeah in a sense it's like you get the
followers as your skill level rises to that point and as you get more followers
you feel a responsibility to improve your content and so it's been tough but
what ended up actually working for me is falling back on something that I am an
expert in which was the trading world I was a professional for many years and I
feel comfortable talking about that kind of stuff and I actually have something
to offer and so once I switched my YouTube to that it's been a little bit
smoother sailing sherry you've found your niche which is very similar to my
niche and yet you've got your own style your own way of doing things which is
different from everybody else and so I I know you're gonna have a lot of success
continued success in this endeavor so everybody first of all go ahead and
check out david lincoln's youtube channel you must subscribe to this the
you can either just type david lincoln or david lincoln finance in the little
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description click on that and subscribe after you subscribe to my channel of
course yes and also David Lincoln is on stocked wits
the handle is the th e famous fa m is da ve am i right for stocked wits stocked
read says yeah it's just famous Dave without the the I believe and Twitter
is the famous Dave I always get those mixed up yes okay so on Twitter it's at
th e fa mi fa mi s Dave and then on stocked wits it's just famous FA mi s
Dave and those will also be in the description of this video so check those
out and subscribe by all means and and check them out on Facebook as well all
right so I wanted to get into your experience you've experienced something
that I haven't and that most people never will as I can tell by your your
outfit there you are in fact a former CBOE market maker and I imagine market
makers as the people who well to explain to everybody very quickly there's the
bid price and the ask price and I believe market makers capitalized in the
difference between those two and also market makers don't really get to choose
what they trade all the time unlike retail traders would these be accurate
statements yes definitely and uh it varies based on which exchange you're
working on and what product you have but at the very most basic sense we're there
to make a market so a bid and offer and a size so I'm you know 150 bid at 160 20
up by 20 and I'll sell 20 and that's our basic function is to make give a market
in a size in several products and and once we make a market if somebody hits
our bid or pays our offer then we we're obligated to trade with them so a lot
goes into figuring out what that market is and that's sort of the the science of
it but market making is a it's something that there's a lot of confusion around
we're thought of as these guys behind the scenes that are manipulating the
situation we're thought of there's a lot of confusion about it and so I've really
enjoyed trying to bring a little bit of clarity to what being a market maker is
about and what we're doing and one of the biggest fallacies about market
makers is that we sort of know ahead of time what's going to happen and that
we're moving the markets ourselves and I can tell you standing on the pit we know
as little as anyone else does we're scratching our heads just like everyone
else is and we're as everybody's saying on the market makers are running the
show we're thinking to ourselves those guys upstairs the big goldman sachs
traders or the mortgage traders those are the guys that are running the show
so you know the secret is is there is no guy behind the curtain you know it
we everybody's out there trying to figure it out everybody's competing with
each other and you know we we have good times and bad times just like ever the
traders yeah absolutely so are there any I don't know III might add the words
market maker secrets to the title of this video are there any things that
retail traders ought to know that you've seen or that you've figured out as an
insider well one of the basic concepts of making markets is called price
discovery and what that is about is moving prices and so what we try to do
is if we have a buyer we try to move the prices we try not to make our own
opinion of things if we can help it and we just try to move the prices so if we
get buyers we're gonna try to move prices as high as we possibly can until
we get a seller coming in on the other end so if we have buying paper we're
gonna move the prices up and up that might be raising volatility in an option
series or it might be moving the price of an underlying we're gonna move it in
one direction until we get buyers on the other side and we're gonna try to let
the paper dictate what the market is for us and we're gonna kind of just stand to
the side and let's figure it out from the paper that's called price discovery
and to be successful we try to keep moving the prices and you know if we're
selling stuff we try to sell it at more and more advantageous prices and if
we're buying stuff we try to buy it at more advantageous prices now that's
gotten a lot more difficult in these days of multi listing of options where
we're competing with several other exchanges it's harder to move the prices
when you've got other people in the way and thus the world of options market
making has changed a lot in the last few years it used to be many traders on the
floor now it is people streaming quotes from computer systems so a typical
options market maker equity's now would be streaming two or
three hundred sets of quotes so covering two or three hundred issues at
simultaneously and using computer algorithms just stream quotes and so
it's changed a lot since I was there okay it's a whole world that I'm not
privy to and it's fascinating to hear even though you may not be involved in
it in the pit right now it's it's really cool to get that insider view on it do
you think it's even possible for people to use institutional order flow retail
traders talking about can we use institutional order flow or block trades
or dark pool trading to base profitable trades on in your opinion I think that
it's very important to try to track it as best we can and what I do is I
usually use a thinkorswim right now and I will look at time and sales in
thinkorswim and try to see what the big orders were that we're trading in
whatever issues I'm trading that day and I also go to bar chart comm and I look
at unusual options activity and because even though I might not be able to
figure out okay this guy's buying it from this guy and whether this is
opening or closing it will give me some indication of what's going on if if we
see volatility at say 150 one day and then we see a huge order and then we see
volatility at 120 then we know that somebody came in and sold a lot of stuff
if we see and you know this applies I'm sort of a Vic specialist now and so
we'll be looking at not only VIX related products like VX X or VIX but we'll be
looking at big orders in the actual SPX that are that are moving the derivatives
market my channel got a big boost on February 5th with the well-publicized
collapse of XIV all of a sudden the whole financial world kind of focused in
on our little VIX world and it was a disaster for everybody including me a
little bit but it was good for the channel because all of a sudden people
were focused on us and we kind of get a bad rap vixx traders at
this point there's been a lot of bad articles about us and and we've been
blamed for some of the sell-off and I try to just spell some some of these
things because you know volatility has been in the market whether there are
these VIX ETFs or not if all till he's always in the market it's a component of
the marketplace and we are not creating volatility we're just trying to play it
one way or the other yeah I remember certain people blamed
these vol vol Shorter's of all product traders for the 10% drawdown in the
markets well how about the fact that we hadn't had a 10% drawdown in the in the
S&P 500 for two years yeah you think that might have something to do with it
maybe it was overdue maybe it's just a healthy correction and Corrections do
and should happen from time to time so you know I'm not into the blame game and
I know that you're not either I'm actually looking right now speaking of
that and thank you for bringing that up on there's an article from deal-breaker
dot-com don't know much about deal-breaker calm but they caught my eye
with this headline which is that pro shares to castrate legless survivor of
short ball blow up well that's violent imagery right there
sounds painful I know yeah and they're referring to on the vol pocalypse which
has been documented on your channel and mine as well
sv XY went down and for those who don't know sv XY is an exchange-traded product
that is short volatility non leveraged sv x y went down around 90% and xiv
which is another unleveraged short vol product that people like to trade well
I'm gonna put that in the past tense because that actually went out of
business I'm not saying pro shares way out of
business but the the fund did it is now gone so what they're saying in this
article here and just want to get your take on this if that's okay
is that basically SVX why isn't the same anymore either yes it still exists but
they're calculating it differently it is going to be it says basically they're
reducing the leverage which I thought that's odd because it's an unleveraged
product what exactly is going on here and you're in your opinion well before
this happened we had a SV XY which is an inverse fix fund so when the VIX goes
down it goes up and this sort of basically people would use this to take
advantage well one of the big things they'd had going for it was it had
contango in its favour you can't actually as you know but some of your
viewers may not you can't actually trade the VIX it's just a number it's based on
a a it's actually they they conceal what it's specifically based on but it's
basically a strip of puts in the SPX values that bring up to come up with
this number and you can't treat it exactly so they use futures to trade it
and so that's where they get the talking about it leveraged even though it's just
a one-time leverage thing in that they use futures to approximate the VIX and
sv x y and u v XY r to approximate the VIX thirty days out and so they reduced
them yeah two days ago from you vxy used to be a two times the VIX leverage fund
and se XY was a negative one times fund and now they reduced them to s VX Y
being 0.5 times the VIX inverse and UV X Y being 1.5 times the VIX inverse but
the problem that I and a lot of other people have with this situation is that
proShares just announced this change to the formula of their ETF out of the blue
and said tomorrow we're changing the formula of our product and you know a
lot of people have made adjustments after this law pocalypse that you called
it but in my opinion you can't just change
a product overnight and say okay it's a different product now several of us have
options contracts and on which have a time to them they don't expire for
there's options that are out three or four years in UV XY leaps leaps options
are out I think through Jan 2020 maybe 2019 but far out and so when you
change the formula you're the farthest out options are affected the most
because they have the most Vega now Vega is a Greek term we use an
options trading for the number of dollars that you make her lose for a one
point move and volatility and the farthest out options in time till
expiration are the most vague intensive options so many people had had these
strategies that were calculated specifically to take advantage of the
contango decay associated with VIX futures and when they Cohen changed the
formula overnight it throws all of these calculations completely out of whack and
a lot of people you know had big losses some people had big gains but a lot of
people had big losses right after that and this article that you were
mentioning guy kind of it makes like some snide remarks and just kind of
laughs at everybody and says like Oh everybody's morons that had this trade
on but we had no way of knowing that they would actually change the product
and I believe this is unprecedented that somebody's actually changed changed a
formula for an ETF overnight yeah they're changing sounds to me like
they're changing the rules in the middle of the game and it's not really fair or
nice and not that this is a yeah the markets aren't necessarily fair or nice
but we expect these funds if they want to maintain the reputation at least to
have to utilize best practices and this doesn't seem like a best practice would
that be fair to say yes I mean David you you know that you and I are in the
business of taking risk and as traders we we have to try to figure out what our
risks are and we're putting it out there we're taking a risk and if something can
go always go wrong and so I accept that I'm not you know crying
over spilled milk or something I I accept that stuff can happen but this
was not a risk that we thought was even out there that they could actually just
change the formula of a fund overnight and I didn't get hurt that badly I was
long some put spreads and thus the put that I was long had more option premium
than the put I was short and thus I lost a little bit of money on on that because
when a fund goes from 2 times leverage to 1 and a half times leverage the
chance of the underlying moving far away from where it is now to a far out strike
gets to be less because you have less leverage there's less chance that these
options are going to expire in the money that are way out of the money now and
thus that's all related to the black and Scholes model and thus the option prices
go down so we came in in the morning yesterday to prices being crushed I mean
the April 10 puts in you vxy effectively were down 50% and I'm talking about
right on the open without the underlying having moved at all later in the day
that you vxy was up like it was today but yeah there was there was some some
blood in the water and this isn't the only time this month as you know
February 5th there was some blood in the water too so it's been a rough month for
some people and I'm not I'm not here to complain or bellyache about it I'm just
explaining my opinion on things yeah I appreciate that so once again people
should definitely check out you've got a growing Facebook group that you recently
started I'll put a link to that in the description below this video people
should check it out and or just go to Facebook type in David Lincoln or David
Lincoln finance in the search box but better yet just go to the description
below this video click on that and come come join us you know it's a robust
growing Facebook group and you don't have to just only discuss volatility
products as far as I'm concerned you can discuss other things but you're
certainly welcome to discuss all those things I want to talk about the state of
the markets right now I'm only invested in a few things
got a couple of blue chip stocks small to medium sized positions in those I
traded a little bit of X V X Y recently but I got out of that at a small profit
and I'm glad that I did I got lucky with that I'm very hesitant to add to any
positions right now moving up or down 1% on a daily basis talking about the S&P
500 having one percent or greater moves on a daily basis is not normal is it -
in your opinion is it too volatile to really safely trade anything right now
well I think there's definitely opportunity out there and this is going
to become normal for at least a while now you know we're in an environment now
where interest rates are starting to rise there's hints of inflation in the
market and like you said the one or two percent move all of a sudden has become
normal in the last couple weeks and you know we had the big sell-off on the
fifth and then we we've kind of had some hiccups but then we started rallying
back last week but then all of a sudden we had the Powell testimony yesterday
and we had a pretty big sell-off today and you know people people are scared
again the VIX popped above 20 again and a lot of people think that this is going
to be the new normal now is that we're gonna get bigger swings in the the major
indices you know bigger moves and you know we still haven't taken out the lows
of February 5th but if that happens and I think all bets are off for people but
this is the market we love as traders you kind of have to pick your points but
if you if you can be disciplined and there's opportunity definitely here
stuff is out of whack stuff is mispriced and you know people are not experienced
with this kind of market but this probably is going to be the new normal
for a little while now at least we're off of that rally small range rally that
we were on for a while and we're bouncing around I think we're in a
trading range right now if if we take out once again the lows of the fifth
then then fireworks could really happen but in the meantime we're kind of in a
trading range so if you are an option seller and are looking to sell some
strangles or straddles it might be a good time to do so because we're kind of
in a range like I said going up or down okay like for example the spiders as
they call it spwhy looks like on February early February went as it went
as low as what is that the maybe around 255 or so so if it breaks below that
let's say in the next few weeks and then I imagine that the VIX term VIX futures
term structure would probably go back into backwardation so how do you fall on
the debate of if backwardation does happen do you stay out of the short
vowel trade or do you get excited and rub your hands and say okay and now I go
in even more well I mean we went back into backwardation today and basically
when we're in backwardation the the edges to the upside the the the VIX is
sort of pulling the futures upward towards it and there's no advantage to
being short short short the VIX at that point in fact there's arguing that
there's sort of a disadvantage I would say that we only typically stay in
backwardation for about 15% of the time and we still have the the drag of beta
slippage as I call it which is as they rebalance the value decays a little bit
to offset backwardation I don't think that we're going to go into a permanent
backwardation state I think that as long as we don't accelerate to the downside
the markets will adjust themselves back into contango at some point but in the
meantime it's really it's not like it was last year where you can just short
stuff and it's going to go down and take out the lows I think it will take out
the lows at some point this year and say you vxy and stuff is ultimately going
lower so don't think that the graph is just gonna turn itself
around and go straight up from here it's definitely not and we will we will take
out the lows at some point but in the meantime stuff can feel free to bounce
around we could be in a heightened vol regime for six months that wouldn't
surprise me I think you need to have a plan for for every eventualities so that
you're not shocked and stay small but you know experience this time and try to
find opportunities because they definitely are out there yeah they're
always out there there's always an opportunity somewhere I have stopped the
practice of shorting or selling uncovered or naked calls in in
volatility products I just after the vol pocalypse I I'm done with that or even
just shorting shares because you know that was just a 10% market correction on
that and the following days that's a normal correction that's nothing that's
not even 2011 not to mention 2008-2009 so is it even safe to just to short a
few shares of VXX you vxy at all i mean i'd i've seen your interviews with Vance
Harwood Stephen Aniston you know Russell Rhoads you know everybody should check
out those interviews by the way from David Lincoln in his channel but they've
all described how you know high volatility regimes can can really wipe
out accounts and there could be sustained volatility from a long time is
it safe to short chairs of VXX uvx wide tea VIX well I think even though we had
it was not that big of a percentage move down in the market on February 5th
it was a huge move and volatility and volatility products and I think that
don't expect to see a big that big a move anytime soon I think that now that
volatility is up in the I guess the VIX close what in the 20s we're not going to
see an 80% move in the futures again from the 20s even higher than that in my
opinion I think that you know the the 80% rule resets the day after that that
big move and you know it would take a huge huge event to actually match what
happened then so in a sense comparatively we it is safer to short
this stuff than it was the day before February 5th because a lot of the sort
of pressure is off it and we're already kind of high up in the in the range so
people are not willing people were definitely willing to reach from 10 to
20 and the VIX but there are less willing to reach from 20 to 40 in the
VIX because just that's just the nature of things so for people that are think
that this can get way WAY worse I would say that you know that move that we got
February 5th is like a once and I I don't know year move or something like
that and to think that we're going to get a second one like that within a
couple weeks just doesn't seem like the odds are in that favor and yeah it's
scary out there but I think that yeah I wouldn't say it's safe to short anything
there was risk and everything but it's a risk that you know that I would be
willing to take at these levels I think it's definitely safer than selling stuff
at 9 where the market was 9 in the VIX and yeah there's still stuff to be done
but that being said if you are going to sell some calls when you do get that day
when volatility comes in trade out of them don't don't expect you're gonna be
able to ride this for weeks and months if you you know if you put something on
it goes your way a little in it goes your way and you have some money lock it
in and move on because we've seen several moves for example you vxy in one
day where you could have anything you would have done you could have bought it
sold it and you would have been profitable at some point in the day and
you could have taken it off the people that are getting hurt the most are
people that are being stubborn and holding on to these positions and like
maybe trying to make all the money back that they lost or something you know you
got to say nimble and small and I'm I'm happy to hear that you didn't get
crushed on that day but a lot of people got crushed on that day February 5th and
you know I I have followers who lost a lot of money and I feel awful for them
it's it's a it's a terrible feeling to have met just met these people and hear
that they lost a lot of money it's it's because I know how hard it is to make
money you know I've worked minimum-wage jobs in my life before and and and you
know I know that this is a serious thing for people and so that was hard for me
as somebody who you know people kind of look look to for advice to see people
lose money I know I didn't recommend that people do certain things but you
know my space is in the short volatility space and so and people took a loss
isn't it was a tough thing to deal with but yeah I think that now we will not
see a spike as huge as that one anytime soon in my opinion even if we take out
the lowest from February 5th that was a really unprecedented event to have an
acceleration of of fund and things like that and we've seen the market adjust
since then and they've changed all these funds and stuff like that but you know I
think there's opportunity out there now it's a wake up call to some people the
easy money you know what happens in trading is there's an edge you figure it
out you make some money it works for a certain period of time and then it's
gone you got to find another edge well maybe that just getting long as vxy and
riding it out and making 140 percent in a year or whatever I don't know what the
exact percentage may be that's gone and you got to find a different way but you
know we readjusted we keep going yeah I mean I had the opportunity to interview
somebody you got to interview Vance Harwood who said yeah I asked him why
not just huddle or hold on to s vxy now that it's at such a massive discount and
he basically told me and I'm paraphrasing heavily that if you're
going to do that at least by some some puts protective puts maybe even make a
collar out of it he was he was amenable to that idea
you know to sell some covered calls to help pay for those puts because there's
still massive risk there just because something went from over a hundred to
you know ten doesn't mean it can't go from ten to three or something
it certainly could there's always that risk there alright yeah sorry to
interrupt you but if you if you look at if you are gonna trade the SV XY or the
V men or one of these products you you have to think of it in percentage terms
at this point so if you're buying it for 12 you have to think that okay well a
20% return on my money you know would get me to let's say I
don't know 15 or something or 16 or something you can't expect that it's
going back to a hundred and the turn it's not you know the same vmon you know
vmon too close to 81 today something like that if you buy it now you know if
it were to double in the next year and a half that would be an amazing return if
it got back to six dollars but don't think it's going to 40 it's not going
back to 40 this year no matter what happens and uh you know vmon has changed
their strategy they did things the right way by giving plenty of time they're
gonna they're gonna now be kind of in between
what s vxy used to be and z IV which is a duration that's a little bit farther
out than 30 days and so it's a different product but but but these things you got
to look at minute percentage terms and don't think that they're going back to
the lofty returns they were at the time because the the fact of what happened on
February 5th that that that particular money's gone and you know the futures
that traded then are gone and expired and it's it's you you got to think of it
in percentage terms it's not going back to 100 this year no matter what happens
like I said so if you're buying it for the first time then you got to think of
it in percentage terms if you wrote it down from a hundred that money is
largely gone you know and it could slowly come back but it's not going to
get to a hundred even into the best conditions in the next 3-4 years you
know that's just the way it is are there any conditions under which you would
ever buy a long volatility products such as UV XY
VXX that kind of thing because when if the VIX ever gets back down below nine
it's kind of tempting what do you think well that's a great question Dave and
I'm glad you asked me that because it's it's a timing thing if you if you're
gonna get long volatility back as a market maker what we did was when
volatility got cheap we get a historical graph of volatility safer I don't know
GM or something and let's say the range was twenty to fifty involved once once
fall got around twenty we would be buyers if it got to ten we would be huge
buyers but that was because we were able to lay off whatever we bought we had
option buyers coming in where we could trade in and out of stuff back and forth
but as a retail customer it's very difficult to be long volatility at any
price for any period of time and make money just inherent in option prices
options or miss price a little bit higher than their actual true value and
that's just the way it is so and also with a fixed product you've got other
headwinds against you you've got you know contango and this sort of thing I
I'm a decent options trader but I'm terrible at timing the market I'm
terrible at timing stocks you know I'm the worst stock picker in the world I
can only do my little things that I can do and so for me trying to pick when to
buy volatility is it's it's a worthless cause because I just won't I won't be
able to time it right some people some people are decent at it and some people
would have a different opinion than me on that and you know would be willing to
buy something at a cheap law if you were going to do that I would recommend doing
it in in stocks as opposed to volatility products and I would I would do
something like buy low volatility and some like longer-term options at the
money options or something like that but volatility products have too much
there's too much drag no matter what against you and if you
get it timed exactly right yeah it would have been great to have bought stuff
right before February 5th but there's been a million other days besides
February 5th where nothing happened where it seemed like something was gonna
happen and it didn't happen so me personally no I wouldn't get long and I
never in long you vxy I've never I've never long volatility I will lay off it
and have no position or I'll be shorted but I'm never long volatility anymore
when I was in the pit I would get long at times but nowadays as a retail guy no
yeah and I don't blame you I'm pretty much of the same opinion and finally
just to branch out a little bit in terms of topics are you into any other types
of equities such as or or just investments are into the the marijuana
stocks who or the crypto currencies what what's your playground or the or the
speculative part of your portfolio well as you know Dave I check out the the
marijuana stocks I love your series every Dave if you guys don't know has a
series every weekend on the marijuana stocks but I was into it before even
your series you know I don't partake myself anymore but you know back in
college I was a big pot smoker I was I followed the Grateful Dead around the
country for many years I've been to 63 Grateful Dead concerts and I was a judge
in the cannabis cup in Amsterdam one year so I was a big smoker and I was big
into legalization back then and Bob Marley and all this stuff but and so
it's intriguing to me that you could actually invest in something you know
without being a drug dealer that was actually Pro marijuana and and but the
marijuana marijuana stocks I've been following them and you know there's been
a step back in the last couple weeks where Canada seems to be moving back the
date and it's a very volatile industry and they've been getting hammered for
the last while I mean last couple weeks I got I look at marijuana index calm
and they seem to operate as a whole group at a lot of times and so even if
you get good news in your stock if the industry is going up or down that's
gonna dictate what happens it has been my a what I've noticed but I
think that they are a long-term are going to be a huge buy but when I
interviewed the chart guys Dan he said that marijuana stocks will make many
millionaires and I agree with that so if you can time a good entry point in some
of these my favorite ones are áfreeá and canopy growth and if you can't I'm a
good entry into these ones like after you now I think was trading it was up
today but around $10 and they they are gonna be huge in the future I believe
and so long term holds definitely but you if when you see them rip the upside
like they did in December you might not want to you know it's just like the your
interviews with rich TV you don't want to be buying stuff in at a premium
whenever and it's buying it you want to be buying stuff at a discount you want
to look and say wow that's really down I'm gonna buy some here and I think the
marijuana stocks are there right now i-i'll a off the the kryptos I'm I've
been outspoken I think that kryptos are going lower I don't think Bitcoin will
reach 15,000 again I've been wrong the whole time so don't don't trust me on
these have been wrong the whole time but I don't think it's ever going to get
back to 15,000 I I think blockchain is is very interesting and is an important
technology but I think the actual value of crypto should not be so elevated and
that they're going lower so we'll see what happens but my prediction is
Bitcoin doesn't really get too far away from this 10,000 level and a lot of the
other ones disappear interesting what it's worth okay all right
and you know we're not in the business of predicting here but no idea but that
that's an opinion that I have not heard recently so that's that's really
interesting and you know what you heard it here folks and if he turns out to be
right then you're a genius right isn't that how it works at home if you can
hold me to it I don't know I don't know if that's the
way it works I I don't like to make predictions I never predict what's gonna
happen the next day do you have a lot of people ask you what's gonna happen the
next day in the markets yeah I'm sure you get emails every day I do and you
know I'm not in the business of predicting any trading or investing
strategy that I do is prediction free I mean well you know and anytime you go
long ass stock you're you're predicting it's going to go up at some point but
I'm talking about specific events is this stock going to go up tomorrow or in
the next five minutes I try to avoid that and I'm sure you do too because we
know how that usually turns out yeah yeah it makes you look silly in the end
because in any given day up or down it's it's pretty random as I'm can you know
I'm a I'm also I don't believe in technical analysis I look at charts but
I don't believe it all in technical analysis which is I think that's a very
common trait for options market makers we generally trade delta-neutral which
means flat we're not either biased to the up or
down and we generally have a quantitative approach I know my charts I
certainly know my charts but I don't put a lot of stock in in a lot of the
technical analysis stuff which I know that dismay is a lot of traders but I
respect traders in any way you can figure out to make money in these
financial markets power to you it's just for me it doesn't work well said oh it's
a great way to end this so once again people need to check out all the links
in the description below this video for mr. David Lincoln subscribed to his
YouTube channel check out all of his interviews all of his videos join his
facebook group it's growing and you'll be starting you'll be on the ground
floor of a community that is growing and it's like a study group it's really cool
and no charge hits free at least right now it's free and check out famous Dave
on stocked wits and the famous Dave on Twitter hope I got it right all right
yes you did you did all right well thank you well you interviewed me and so the
least I could do is repay the favor and I'm gonna put this out and promote it
and I want people to check out famous Dave all over social media
because he is becoming the famous Dave and you saw him here nice and early in
his journey thanks a lot mr. David Lincoln for coming on looking at the
markets appreciate it sir thanks for having me
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