The 5 biggest Trump Russia events to watch for in 2019
In 2018, President Donald Trump saw members of his campaigns inner circle — including its former chair — plead guilty to federal crimes in special counsel Robert Muellers probe into Russian interference in the 2016 election.
But in 2019, its entirely possible things could get even worse for Trump and those around him.
Rumors that will soon complete his investigation continue to swirl, meaning the world may soon know if the Trump campaign colluded with Russia to interfere with the 2016 presidential election.
Should the probe continue, though, its possible that Mueller could indict people even closer to Trump. The presidents longtime adviser Roger Stone, his son in law Jared Kushner, and his son Donald Trump Jr., have all come under the special counsels scrutiny.
If the danger for Trump or his family worsens, the president could finally do what hes been and try to shut down the special counsel investigation. If that happens, expect a political firestorm and perhaps even calls for impeachment, especially since Democrats will control the House of Representatives.
And finally, its possible that Trump will find himself in legal trouble for non Russia related crimes. Federal prosecutors unconnected to Mueller are particularly interested in how much went into his inaugural committees coffers. That means the president has more than just Mueller to worry about.
What follows are the key things to watch for in the Trump Russia and other investigations in 2019. Depending on how they play out, the president — and the country — may face an even bigger legal and political crisis than in Trumps first two years.
have been indicted or pleaded guilty so far as part of Muellers investigation. That number includes five former advisers to Trump. We know those close to Trump, including his family members, held with Russians during the campaign. We even know for sure that and had a noticeable preference for Trump over Hillary Clinton.
The crucial answer we dont have yet is whether Trump, or anyone in his inner circle, actively colluded with Russia to win the 2016 presidential election. Thats what Mueller was originally tasked to find out — and its the biggest question he has yet to publicly answer. Its likely the reason Trump and those around him continue to say whenever someone brings up the Mueller probe.
But there is certainly , if you want to call it that, of close Trump Russia ties.
First, Russia stole emails from Democrats and disseminated them strategically through WikiLeaks at critical moments during the 2016 campaign. Trump and his campaign, at the time, believed these emails were a big deal and cited them frequently. Trump said on several occasions on the campaign trail. He even explicitly called on the Russian government to .
Second, there were extensive communications between people in Trumps orbit and Russian government figures and others who had, or purported to have, close ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Some of this communication — including to a top Putin aide and with a Russian Olympic weightlifter — was ostensibly about efforts to construct a . We now know that efforts by people in and connected to the Trump Organization to make that project happen continued well into Trumps presidential campaign.
But some of the communications, including the various escapades of former Trump campaign advisers and , involved relatively peripheral players who didnt have strong pre campaign ties to Trump or play significant post campaign roles in the administration.
Third, Donald Trump Jr. while attending the National Rifle Associations annual convention in Kentucky in May 2016. A US conservative activist named , the one time boyfriend of confessed Russian foreign agent , arranged the meeting.
That might have served as a step toward creating back channel communications between Russia and the Trump campaign. Plus, to Trump during a 2015 conference prompted him for the first time to mention he might consider removing sanctions on Russia though we should note that as president, hes actually on Russia .
And finally, Trump Jr., along with his son in law Jared Kushner and his campaign chair Paul Manafort, with a Russian lawyer — a meeting those Trump associates were explicitly told was part of the Russian governments effort to support Trumps candidacy.
Theres more, but you get the idea.
Its of course possible, if not entirely likely, that Trumps inner circle and Russians close to the Kremlin didnt collude during the campaign — that there was a lot of interaction, but no real plan to work together to help get Trump into the White House.
Whether or not Mueller will finally answer that question definitively in 2019 is still unclear, but there is no other question more pressing or important to answer.
This major 2017 and 2018 question will remain as important in 2019. Thats because Muellers probe is drawing closer to Trumps top aides and to Trump himself. Whats different this year is that Trump now has a big supporter and Mueller critic as his acting attorney general.
So far, have pleaded guilty or been indicted. Two of them, Trumps short lived and Russia linked former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn and former top campaign official Rick Gates, continue to cooperate with Mueller.
We know of that Mueller asked the president about in written questions: Donald Trump Jr.s Trump Tower meeting, Roger Stone and possible WikiLeaks communications, Michael Cohens Trump Tower Moscow talks, and a change to the .
Its no wonder, then, that when Trump fired his previous attorney general, Jeff Sessions — who defended the Mueller probes independence — in November and replaced him with — a man who has publicly criticized the Mueller probe.
Whitaker, a former US attorney from Iowa, was the White Houses eyes and ears in the Justice Department, according to Hes who unsuccessfully ran for Senate in 2014. He aligns with Trump when it comes , but Whitaker comes with the added perk of having publicly criticized Mueller.
For example, in August 2017 Whitaker wrote an op ed for CNN in which he blasted the probe. Mueller has come up to a red line in the Russia 2016 election meddling investigation that he is dangerously close to crossing, wrote. If he were to continue to investigate the [Trump familys] financial relationships without a broadened scope in his appointment, then this would raise serious concerns that the special counsels investigation was a mere witch hunt.
Mueller has to notify Whitaker about major investigative actions. That means the acting attorney general could severely hamstring the probe by denying some of Muellers asks. As far as we know, that hasnt happened yet and there is no public indication Whitaker has moved to curb Muellers authority. Its also entirely possible Trumps permanent pick for the attorney general role, , will dutifully supervise Muellers investigation.
But keeping an eye on that possibility will remain a top issue as we head into 2019.
Another big question is whether Mueller plans to indict anyone else close to the president. Three people in particular have gotten a good deal of scrutiny from investigators.
Lets start with Trump Jr.: During his to the Senate Judiciary Committee in September 2017, he claimed he wasnt involved in the Trump Organizations efforts to build a tower in Moscow, was not aware that his fathers lawyer Michael Cohen directly reached out to the Kremlin about it, and suggested Cohens efforts to work with Russian born developer Felix Sater on the project ended prior to 2016.
But Cohen admitted in December that the effort to get off the ground continued well into 2016 and happened with the Trump familys knowledge. And according to Muellers court filing indicting Cohen with lying to Congress about it, Cohen apparently briefed family members of Individual 1 [Donald Trump] within the Company about the project in Moscow.
Its unclear which specific family members the filings refer to — Trump Jr., Eric Trump, and Ivanka Trump are all family members of the president who were working at the time for the Trump Organization — but given Trump Jr.s role as one of the top Trump Organization officials, its hard to imagine he wasnt among them.
That means its possible Trump Jr. knowingly lied to Congress. If thats the case, Mueller may indict the presidents son this year. Whoa.
But another son may also be in legal trouble in 2019 — a son in law, that is.
In December 2017, Mueller a court document that described a very senior member of Trumps presidential transition team asking Michael Flynn to persuade the Russian ambassador to the US to stop a UN Security Council vote on Israeli settlement policy.
that the official was Kushner. That makes perfect sense: Kushner was an extremely important figure during the transition, and reporting at the time suggested that he was in Trump team deliberations on the settlements issue.
That was just one of many times Kushners name has come up in connection with the Russia matter. There was the meeting he had with Ambassador Sergey Kislyak during the transition in which they setting up a secret backchannel of communication. There was the with a Russian lawyer whod promised dirt on Hillary Clinton during the campaign. And there are the that Kushner urged Trump to fire then FBI director James Comey.
Kushner also amended his financial disclosure forms at least . Those forms are important: They are needed for Kushner to get a security clearance. Zeeshan Aleem for Vox that Kushner originally failed to report the Trump campaigns communications with Russia; his meetings with Russians; his business ties with Russians; and more. On top of that, Kushner to conduct government business.
Its therefore safe to say Kushner — who remains a top White House adviser — could be in Muellers crosshairs.
And then theres , the one time Trump campaign adviser and infamous political operative. Mueller has remained interested in Stone for a while, inquiring about , his , and his contacts .
The big issue, though, is , the transparency organization that released emails from Democrats that Russians stole.
has publicly claimed inside knowledge about WikiLeaks founder Julian Assanges plans to release damaging information about Hillary Clinton. Plus, he last June that hed also met with a Russian national who called himself Henry Greenberg, who he says offered him dirt on Hillary Clinton and asked him for dollar 2 million.
In all of these cases, Stone denies that anything untoward took place. But his . So what, exactly, did he do in 2016? Was it legal? And what did Trump know about it? Indeed, one of the Muellers team is said to want to ask the president is: What did you know about communication between Roger Stone, his associates, Julian Assange or WikiLeaks?
If Mueller knows anything more about this, its possible well learn about it this year.
If Mueller ends his investigation in 2019, its unclear if it will become public. Even if the probe survives, no one may never get to hear most of what he ultimately finds.
Thats because Mueller is only required by law to deliver a confidential report to the person overseeing his investigation, in this case acting Attorney General Matthew Whitaker. And Whitaker has no obligation to send the report to Congress or tell the public about it, which means much of what Mueller uncovers may remain a secret.
Whitaker, or whoever becomes the permanent attorney general, could choose to make some or all of the report public, but that person is only required to notify Congress if Mueller proposes some action that is under Justice Department rules that it should not be pursued.
So unless Mueller does something Whitaker finds objectionable, he can keep the report under wraps.
Mueller certainly knows this, which is why experts say hes using his indictments to reveal part of what hes finding. He is telling a story through the indictments that he files in court, which are painting a vivid picture of Russian efforts to interfere in the election, , the vice dean of Cornell Law School, told Vox in March.
The is that Muellers indictments have effectively turned into the public report. That makes sense, since Whitaker or any other Trump loyalist cant stop court documents from entering the public domain. Being extremely detailed in any court filing allows the Mueller probe to circumvent any GOP led efforts to stifle the final report.
Therefore 2019 may not be the year the final document comes out all at once; instead, it could be the year Mueller reveals all in Americas judicial system.
In December 2017, we learned that Trump had to deal with yet another criminal investigation: one into his . Yes, seriously.
Prosecutors in the US Attorneys Office for the Southern District of New York SDNY seem interested in the inaugural committees spending, and into potential corruption involving favors for its donors. The criminal probe reportedly stems at least in part from material found during the FBIs raids on former Trump lawyer Michael Cohens residence and office in April 2017.
Thats especially interesting now that — the former Trump aide who helped run the inaugural committee and struck a plea deal with Mueller in February — is cooperating with the government.
Trumps inaugural committee raised an astonishing dollar 106.7 million, set by Barack Obamas 2009 inaugural committee. But what they did with it isnt so clear. Its of course possible that Gates and , the billionaire head of the inaugural committee, were just really good fundraisers.
But federal prosecutors seem to be looking into whether there was some foul play involved, like a quid pro quo in which a foreign government offered a lot of money in exchange for a favor. in May that Mueller was questioning witnesses about millions of dollars in donations to President Donald Trumps inauguration committee — specifically about donors with connections to Russia, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.
Whatever the true nature of the record fundraising haul — sketchy or innocuous — it will likely be revealed in 2019.
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