>>HELLO, I'M DIANE TREES.
DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS LIKE THE
LONGEVITY OF BABY BOOMERS AND
THE LIFESTYLES OF MILENNIALS ARE
PROFOUNDLY EFFECTING MULTIPLE
AREAS OF REAL ESTATE MARKETS;
RETAIL, COMMERCIAL, INDUSTRIAL,
RESIDENTIAL.
WHAT'S HOT AND WHAT'S NOT?
REBECCA WILSON, SHAREHOLDER AND
LAND USE ATTORNEY AT THE LAW
FIRM OF LOWNDES, DROSDICK,
DOSTER, KANTOR & REED JOINS US
NOW TO TALK ABOUT EMERGING
TRENDS.
BECKY, WELCOME TO THE SHOW.
>>THANK YO USO MUCH, DIANE.
>>YOU ARE A LAND USE ATTORNEY
AND YOU'RE INCOMING CHAIR FOR
THE URBAN LAND INSTITUTE.
WHAT DREW YOU TO THIS KIND OF
PRACTICE?
>>WELL A LOT OF PEOPLE DON'T
KNOW EXACTLY WHAT A LAND USE
ATTORNEY DOES.
SO I HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY OF
HELPING DEVELOPERS AND LAND
OWNERS ALONG WITH THEIR TEAM OF
ARCHITECTS AND ENGINEERS PUT
TOGETHER DEVELOPMENT PACKAGES
AND WE THEN GO AND HAVE THOSE
APPROVED BY THE LOCAL
GOVERNMENT.
IT INVOLVES A LOT OF OUTREACH TO
THE NEIGHBOR.
SO IT'S A LOT OF FUN BECAUSE MY
PRACTICE IS A LITTLE BIT LAW, A
LITTLE BIT PUBLIC RELATIONS, AND
A LITTLE BIT POLITICS.
>>I WOULD SAY A LOT OF POLITICS
WITH THAT, YES.
>>INCREASINGLY.
>>YES, YES.
WELL THE URBAN LAND INSTITUTE
PUTS OUT AN ANNUAL REPORT ON
EMERGING TRENDS EVERY YEAR.
2016, THE REPORT HELD THE
ORLANDO AREA FOR OVERALL REAL
ESTATE PROSPECTS.
I THINK WE WERE RANKED LIKE
40TH.
COMING INTO 2017 THEY RANKED US
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE 20TH LEVEL.
THAT'S A BIG JUMP.
BECKY, WHAT DO YOU THINK CAUSED
US TO MOVE SO MUCH UP IN THE
PROSPECTS HERE?
>>WELL ORLANDO HAS DONE A GREAT
JOB OF DIVERSIFYING ITS ECONOMY.
AND NOT ONLY HAVE WE DIVERSIFIED
IT BUT WE'VE ALSO USED OUR
PLATFORM OF TOURISM TO PROMOTE
OUR ECONOMY.
AND AS THAT WORD HAS GOTTEN OUT,
WE ARE BEGINNING TO DRAW MORE
INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS, WHICH
HOPEFULLY IN THE LONG RUN WILL
CREATE A MORE SUSTAINABLE AND
LESS VOLATILE REAL ESTATE
MARKET.
>>URBAN LAND INSTITUTE, YOU'RE
INCOMING CHAIR.
DID YOU WANT TO JUST EXPLAIN A
LITTLE BIT ABOUT WHAT THE
INSTITUTION IS SO THAT OUR
VIEWERS KNOW?
>>ABSOLUTELY.
URBAN LAND INSTITUTE'S MISSION
IS TO BRING TOGETHER THE
DIFFERENT DISCIPLINES THAT
SURROUND REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENT
SO THEY CAN SHARE IDEAS ON BEST
PRACTICES.
AND NOT JUST THE BEST PRACTICES
TO MAKE MONEY, BUT THE BEST
PRACTICES FOR SUSTAINABLE REAL
ESTATE DEVELOPMENT.
AND THEY TAKE ON REALLY
DIFFICULT ISSUES; LIKE HOUSING
AFFORDABILITY AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONCERNS.
>>LOOKING AT THE REAL ESTATE
MARKET, AND I ALWAYS THINK OF IT
AS IN DIFFERENT SECTORS LIKE
THAT.
LET'S TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT
EACH OF THEM AND MAYBE WHERE WE
ARE IF YOU CAN GIVE US A LITTLE
ASSESSMENT ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA.
STARTING OUT WITH THE INDUSTRIAL
MARKET, WHAT DOES THAT ENTAIL
AND HOW ARE WE DOING WITH THAT
HERE IN FLORIDA?
>>WELL THE INDUSTRIAL MARKET IS
HOT ACROSS FLORIDA.
SPECIFICALLY, IN CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND THEN ALSO IN MIAMI.
AND WHAT WE'RE SEEING IS THE
DESIRE TO HAVE INDUSTRIAL
STORAGE AND WAREHOUSING IN MORE
IN-FIELD DEVELOPMENTS.
SO, WE ARE PROVIDING THIS
INDUSTRIAL WAREHOUSING FOR THE
RETAIL MODEL THAT'S NOW SHIFTING
TO BRING PRODUCTS FOR DELIVERY
CLOSER TO THE MARKET.
IT'S ALSO CREATING FROM A LAND
USE PERSPECTIVE A LITTLE BIT OF
A STRUGGLE BETWEEN A TRADITIONAL
INDUSTRIAL KIND OF UNDESIREABLE
USE CO-LOCATING WITH RESIDENTIAL
USES.
>>THE INDUSTRIAL MARKET HAS BEEN
STRONG FOR THE LAST YEAR OR SO I
BELIEVE BUT IT WASN'T ALWAYS
LIKE THIS.
DO YOU ATTRIBUTE THAT A LOT TO
THE CHANGES IN THE WAY WE ARE
DOING OUR RETAIL, BUYING AND
SELLING?
>>I DO.
I REALLY ATTRIBUTE IT TO TWO
THINGS.
FIRST IS MENTIONED, I BELIEVE
THEY NOW CALL IT THE CLICK AND
ORDER WAY IN WHICH WE PURCHASE
EVERYTHING FROM CARS TO TOILET
PAPER ONLINE.
BUT ALSO, AS THE REAL ESTATE
MARKET HEATS UP AGAIN, THERE'S A
NEED FOR GOODS AND SERVICES TO
BE AVAILABLE CLOSE BY.
>>LET'S TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT
THE OFFICE MARKET.
WHERE ARE WE HERE AND ESPECIALLY
IN THE DOWNTOWN AREA?
WHICH I WOULD THINK WOULD BE THE
BIGGEST NEED FOR OFFICE SPACE
RIGHT NOW.
>>I THINK THE OFFICE MARKET
ESPECIALLY IN DOWNTOWN ORLANDO
IS IN A LITTLE BIT OF A CHICKEN
AND EGG CYCLE.
ORLANDO HAS A LOT OF STRONG
ATTRIBUTES THAT WOULD DRAW THE
RELOCATION FOR LARGE COMPANIES
TO OUR DOWNTOWN.
HOWEVER, THEY DON'T WANT TO MOVE
HERE IF THERE'S NOT THE
AVAILABILITY OF OFFICE SPACE.
ON THE OTHER SIDE, THE LENDERS
DON'T WANT TO LEND YOU MONEY TO
BUILD A NEW HIGH RISE OFFICE
BUILDING UNTIL THEY KNOW THAT
YOU HAVE LEASES SIGNED FOR THAT.
SO WE'RE IN A LITTLE BIT OF A
STAND OFF WHEN IT COMES TO
DOWNTOWN OFFICE DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER, WE ARE SEEING IN THE
SUB-MARKETS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME NEW MID-RISE OFFICE
BUILDINGS.
I THINK THE KPMG IS A GREAT WIN.
FOR THOSE PEOPLE THAT ARE NOT
AWARE OF THAT, THAT IS THE NEW
TRAINING CENTER THAT'S LOCATED
ON ABOUT 55-ACRES IN LAKE NONA
THAT IS BRINGING PEOPLE FOR
TRAINING NATIONWIDE AND I
BELIEVE INTERNATIONALLY ALSO.
AND THAT WAS AN EXAMPLE OF HOW
ORLANDO WAS ABLE TO LEVERAGE ITS
TOURIST INDUSTRY INTO BRINGING
THAT TYPE OF BUSINESS TO TOWN.
THEY CHOSE THIS LOCATION BASED
ON ITS PROXIMITY TO THE AIRPORT
AND TO THE THEME PARKS.
>>RIGHT, RIGHT.
THE RESIDENTIAL MARKET.
LET'S TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT
THAT.
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES, HOW ARE WE
DOING?
>>SO THE SINGLE FAMILY MARKET IS
STRONG.
WHAT WE'RE SEEING THE MOST
INTEREST IN ARE SMALLER LOTS.
THAT'S BOTH BECAUSE IT GIVES YOU
AN OPPORTUNITY TO AT A LOWER
PRICE POINT, GET INTO THE SINGLE
HOME MARKET.
AGAIN, THE SUB AREAS THAT ARE
PARTICULARLY HOT FOR NEW HOME
SALES ARE SOUTH EAST ORANGE
COUNTY AND THEN HORIZON WEST.
>>WITH THE RENTAL PROPERTIES,
MULTI-FAMILY UNITS, RENT SEEMS
TO BE JUST GOING UP AND UP.
HOW, ARE WE AT A TIPPING POINT
YET WHERE THAT'S GOING TO
CHANGE?
>>THAT'S INTERESTING.
SO IF YOU LOOK AT DOWNTOWN
ORLANDO RIGHT NOW YOU CAN SEE
THERE ARE A LOT OF CRANES UP
DOWNTOWN.
SO, AND THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN A
LOT OF NEW APARTMENTS OPEN.
SO, RIGHT NOW THERE ARE
APPROXIMATELY 2,000 APARTMENT
UNITS EITHER UNDER CONSTRUCTION
OR THAT HAVE APPLIED FOR
APPROVALS WITH THE CITY.
AND WHAT WE'RE SEEING IS THAT
THE DEMAND, ABOUT 60% OF THE
DEMAND NEEDS UNITS THAT ARE
PRICED AT $1,000 OR LESS A
MONTH.
SO, I THINK THAT IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF ALL OF
THESE IN THE PIPELINE ARE ABLE
TO WITHSTAND THAT TYPE OF RENTAL
PRESSURE, ALONG WITH THE RISING
COST OF CONSTRUCTION.
>>RIGHT, RIGHT.
I SAVE RETAIL FOR LAST.
YOU MENTIONED IT BRIEFLY BEFORE.
THINGS ARE CHANGING IN THAT
WORLD SO VERY MUCH.
DO YOU THINK THAT THE DAYS OF
THE MALLS, WE WON'T SEE THAT
QUITE SO MUCH?
>>WHAT WE'RE SEEING IS MORE OF A
SHIFT TOWARDS
RETAIL/ENTERTAINMENT.
SOMETHING THAT WOULD MAKE YOU
WANT TO COME VISIT THE STORE OR
THE LOCATION AS OPPOSED TO
PURCHASING IT ONLINE.
WE'RE ALSO SEEING THE
TRADITIONAL LARGE RETAILERS SUCH
AS WALMART EVOLVE SO THAT THEY
HAVE ONLINE STORES THAT YOU PICK
UP LOCALLY.
AND THEN WE'RE SEEING PUBLIX WHO
HAS PARTNERED WITH THE DELIVERY
APP SHIPT, WHERE THEY ARE
USING THAT TO DELIVER.
AND THOSE ARE THE LARGE BRANDS.
>>RIGHT.
BIG CHANGES.
>>BUT SOME OF THE SMALLER
BRANDS, "TOMS" THAT PRODUCES THE
SHOES OR "PATAGONIA" WITH THE
OUTERWEAR.
THEY'RE TURNING THEIR STORES
MORE INTO A LIFESTYLE EXPERIENCE
WHERE YOU COME IN AND YOU'RE
BUYING INTO THE KIND OF THE
LIFESTYLE THAT THEY'RE SELLING
AS OPPOSED TO JUST A SHOWROOM
FOR WHAT THEY'RE SELLING.
>>RIGHT.
ARE THERE ANY ISSUES, POLICIES
THAT YOU'RE FOLLOWING THAT YOU
THINK MAY IMPACT ANY OF THESE
AREAS IN REAL ESTATE, SAY IN THE
NEXT 12 MONTHS OR SO?
OR ARE THERE SO MANY YOU CAN'T?
>>WELL I THINK ONE OF THE
POLICIES IS CERTAINLY
IMMIGRATION.
25% OF THE LABOR FORCE AND
CONSTRUCTION IS FORIEGN BORN.
SO, AS THOSE RULES BECOME LETS
SAY, MUDDLED OR CONFUSING, THAT
WILL CERTAINLY IMPACT THE
AVAILABILITY OF THE LABOR MARKET
AND THEN THE SECOND WOULD BE, I
DON'T WANT TO SAY JUST INTEREST
RATES BUT PROBABLY THE
REGULATION OF BANKS AND LENDERS
OVERALL AND WHETHER THAT IS
GOING TO LOOSEN UP UNDER THE NEW
ADMINISTRATION.
>>YES.
YOU MENTIONED BEFORE ABOUT THE
CHANGES IN DIVERSIFYING OUR
ECONOMY AND THE BENEFITS.
IN YOUR OPINION, AND THIS IS
LOOKING LONG RANGE, DO YOU THINK
WE'VE MANGAGED TO DIVERSIFY
ENOUGH THAT WHEN THE NEXT DOWN
CYCLE COMES, AND IT WILL, WHEN
WE HAVE A DECREASE IN THE
CONSTRUCTION AGAIN THAT WE WILL
BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND IT A LITTLE
BETTER, THAT IT WON'T CRIPPLE US
QUITE AS MUCH AS IT DID THE LAST
TIME AROUND?
>>WELL CERTAINLY FLORIDA'S
ECONOMY BOTH IN CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND OVERALL IS DEPENDENT ON REAL
ESTATE.
BUT WE'VE DEFINITELY MADE GREAT
STRIDES IN INVESTING IN
EDUCATION.
CERTAINLY HAVING UCF DOWNTOWN
WILL BE A BIG HELP FOR OUR
DOWNTOWN.
THE SIMULATION INDUSTRY AND
ALSO, INCREASINGLY, PUTTING
MONEY TOWARDS TOURISM, THE
AIRPORT, AND ALL OF THE NEW
PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE SHOULD
HELP WHEN THE DOWNTURN COMES
AGAIN.
I WOULD ALSO SAY THAT THIS
EXPANSION ECONOMY THAT WE'VE
BEEN IN FOR ABOUT SEVEN YEARS
HAS BEEN INCREDIBLY MORE
CAUTIOUS THAN PREVIOUS EXPANDING
ECONOMIES.
SO HOPEFULLY WHEN THERE IS A DIP
IT WON'T BE AS DRAMATIC AS WHAT
WE SAW BEFORE.
>>I HOPE SO TOO.
THANK YOU, BECKY.
Không có nhận xét nào:
Đăng nhận xét